Predicting the third wave of Covid 19 in Nepal

Predicting the third wave of COVID-19

Abstract

Nepal is experiencing a second wave of COVID-19 infection leading to major health impacts and crises. Despite the development of a vaccine against COVID-19 and its wider coverage, many countries have already experienced the third wave. After vaccination against COVID-19 antibodies has been seen to be present till eight months in different studies, evidence beyond that is yet to come. Looking at the trends of reinfections and mathematical models for the prediction of COVID-19 infection, there are high chances that Nepal will face the third wave, and children will be affected more due to the unavailability of vaccines for this age group. There is no fixed definite time to detect when the third wave hit. From the health crisis experience during the second wave, Nepal should stress the implication of various strategic and evidence-based measures for third-wave preparedness and mitigation to minimize morbidity, post COVID-19 infection complications, and mortality.